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Source:
www.mti.gov.sg |
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MTI Revises Forecasts for 2009
GDP Growth to -9.0 to -6.0 Per Cent |
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The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced today that it
expects Singapore’s GDP to contract by 6.0 to 9.0 per cent in 2009,
lower than the contraction of 2.0 to 5.0 per cent that it had
forecast on 21 January 2009. |
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Poorer-than-expected first quarter 2009 results |
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Advance estimates[1] for the Singapore economy indicate that economic
activity slowed down sharply in the first quarter of 2009. On a
seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP contracted by 19.7
per cent compared to the previous quarter, worse than the 16.4 per
cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008. Compared to the same
period last year, real GDP is expected to contract by 11.5 per cent,
compared to the 4.2 per cent contraction registered in the last
quarter. MTI’s earlier forecast had factored in the likelihood of a
weak first quarter, but the advance estimates indicate that actual
GDP growth will undershoot earlier expectations by a significant
margin. |
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Gross Domestic Product at 2000 Prices |
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(Percentage change over corresponding period of previous year) |
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1Q08 |
2Q08 |
3Q08 |
4Q08 |
2008 |
1Q09* |
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Overall GDP |
6.7 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
-4.2 |
1.1 |
-11.5 |
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Goods Producing Industries |
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Manufacturing |
12.6 |
-5.6 |
-11.0 |
-10.7 |
-4.1 |
-29.0 |
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Construction |
13.1 |
23.7 |
26.0 |
18.5 |
20.3 |
25.6 |
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Services Producing Industries |
7.5 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
-1.3 |
4.7 |
-5.9 |
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* Advance estimates |
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The decline in the first quarter of 2009 affected every sector, with
the exception of the construction sector. Falling external demand in
late 2008 and early 2009 has severely affected domestic
manufacturing output. In year-on-year terms, the manufacturing
sector is estimated to have contracted by 29.0 per cent in the first
quarter, compared to the 10.7 per cent contraction in the last
quarter of 2008. The manufacturing decline was led by the
electronics and precision engineering segments, but the chemicals
cluster and the biomedical manufacturing cluster also saw large
declines. With most of Singapore’s key trading partners still in
recession, the manufacturing sector will continue to remain weak for
the rest of the year. |
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The services producing industries contracted by 5.9 per cent in
year-on-year terms. The collapse in global trade in recent months
severely affected the wholesale & retail trade sector and the
transport & storage sector in the first quarter of 2009. For the
rest of 2009, these sectors will continue to be weighed down by the
poor prospects for global trade. As a result of falling global
economic activity, the World Trade Organisation has forecast that
world trade will contract by 9 per cent (by volume) in 2009 – the
worst performance since the Second World War. The hotels &
restaurants segment also contracted because of lower tourist
arrivals. Financial services also continued to contract, but at a
more moderate pace compared to the previous quarter. |
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The construction sector was the only sector that showed signs of
robust growth. It is estimated to have grown by 25.6 per cent in the
first quarter of 2009, supported by the strong pipeline of committed
projects in both housing and infrastructure. |
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External outlook remains weak |
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The global economy is expected to remain weak in the coming
quarters. While there are tentative signs of some stabilisation in
the housing, financial and manufacturing sectors in the US, they do
not point to a clear turnaround in economic activity. In recent
months, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have
successively slashed their 2009 growth forecasts for the world, the
developed economies, and regional economies. |
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Taking into account the sharp deterioration in the first quarter of
2009, and the weak global outlook for the rest of the year, MTI is
revising the economic growth forecast for 2009 to -9.0 to -6.0
per cent. |
MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY
14 April 2009 |
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1 The advance GDP estimates for first quarter 2009 are computed
largely from the first two months of the quarter (i.e. January and
February 2009). They are intended as an early indication of the GDP
growth in the quarter, and are subject to revision when more
comprehensive data becomes available. |
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Source:
www.mti.gov.sg Press Release 14 Apr 2009 |
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FrontPage Edition: Tue 14 Apr 2009
