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Horoscope: ASTROLOGY ZONE® by Susan Miller        Singapore Time

 

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       Transcript of SM LEE kuan Yew's interview

     Back to FrontPage

 

Pre-crisis, Southeast Asia was favored because it was not xenophobic; it was going with the tide. Now it is seen as slow to change. The digital divide will be another problem.  Northeast Asia is better educated: higher percentages of population with tertiary education, compared to Thailand or Indonesia. The only country that has made preparations to enter the digital age is Malaysia. The Philippines are not badly off with a fairly well educated population in Manila, but then they have other problems. This digital divide will emphasis the existing differences.

Q: Yet take Japan; it seems unable to get back on a fast growth path and achieve real transparency.

A: Theirs is a cultural problem. The Japanese are aware of their problem that they have to change and change quickly.  Their electronic companies, Sony, Toshiba and NEC, have already got the message and are changing fast, downsizing and restructuring. The old economy industries, like petrochemical and steel sectors, are slower to change.  They find it very difficult to do.

Change will come in the next five to ten years through leaders who are now in their forties and fifties, people who understand the implications of IT and globalization, that their old model has run its course.  They want to find some way to make the transition less painful. But they are going to make this transition. I wouldn't write them off.

Q: Coming back to Southeast Asia: the political instability and uncertainty that we are seeing in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and even in Malaysia to some extent, do you think this is a passing phase or does it show that democracy is having problems taking real root in the region?

A: Sometimes Americans get carried away by their messianic zeal. Before you can have a working democracy, you must have an educated population and a fair-sized middle class that will provide a ballast for society.  Does Indonesia or Thailand have that?  they have a thin elite that is tertiary educated. But across their 210 million Indonesian, its very thin.  Have they got people with the means to understand the issues?

Take Thailand's 60 million. Thaksin has been accused of not disclosing his assets when he was a minister. It made not the slightest difference to the poll figures, not make any difference to the results of the voting today.

Look at Estrada in the Philippines.  He can be acquitted if he can get eight senators to vote for him.

I am amazed when American officials tell me that the important factor is the democratic process, and with a free press, there will be good government. That has not happened.

The best periods of Thailand's growth since the war were under two prime ministers, Prem Tinsulanond and Anand Panyarachun, both non-elected, but both honest and competent.

Q: Governor George Bush is about to take over as president of the United States. Yet he has very little experience in foreign affairs.   (Rest of question missing at end of tape.) One senses that this is a moment where real progress is possible on the Taiwan issue. What do you think?

A:  Mr Bush has powerful advisers in place.  China will be a difficult issue for them, because of the positions Republicans have taken in the eight years they were out of office.  They can't do a quick U turn and abandon their well-stated views. But I am convinced that after six to eighteen months of testing, they will discover, as the Democrats have, that  there are certain basic factors which cannot be wished away, and that therefore it is best to continue the present position, and not precipitate a crisis over Taiwan.

One good thing is that the Taiwanese people have recognized that if they go for independence, they will force the mainland into action. So what the majority want is status quo.

The difficulties may arise in six to eighteen months as the Republicans probe and test out the basic limits of China's position. Theater Missile Defense and National Missile Defense will complicate the issue because they can change the fundamental balance between China and the US.

Q: And the Korean peninsula?

A:  They have got more than what they should have got with KEDO.

Q: Do the statements from Beijing on Taiwan indicate a real opening?

A: Yes, I believe so. The Chinese were taken aback by the election of Chen Shui-bian.  Since then their worst fears have not been realised.  First, it is unlikely that the new president of Taiwan will make a dash for independence. He is cautious and does not want to provoke them. Also, he is politically not as strong as former president Lee Teng Hui. His base is too narrow. Beijing has
now established lines with the Taiwanese opposition, the KMT, the PFP and the New Party, all of whom stand for eventual reunification. They represent at least 61% of the electorate they won in the last election. They want the status quo for as long as possible, not independence. They know that they cannot ignore the warning from China that if they do that (go for independence), they will force China's hand and blood will flow.

To that extent, the situation has improved.  Vice-Premier Qian Qichen has moderated and modulated China's position to make it easier for Taiwan to respond and begin to talk.

Q: If there is, nonetheless, as you have indicated a period of six to eighteen months of tension between China and the US, of testing the limits, and perhaps if TMD goes ahead it gets worse, where does that leave the other East Asian countries?

A:  All will be nervous. China will always be in East Asia. The U.S. can pull back to Hawaii and Alaska, we can't.  And this is too critical an issue for China.  It's as if you tell the Russians that Chechnya has the right of self-determination. Then you must be prepared for a massive row with the Russians.

Q: Do you think that message will sink home pretty quickly with the new administration in Washington?

A:  They must know it already.

Q: If you had to name a capital city for globalization, Singapore might be it. You are in the global economy, you were created by the fact of the global economy in some ways.

A:  We are a reflection, a facet of that economy.  We exist because there is a global economy.

Q: How does the global economy look to you. Financial markets are reflecting anxiety about the future. Greenspan obviously shares it. What do you think?

A: I know enough about the global economy to know that we cannot avoid excesses however careful the regulators are.  Let's hope the excesses have not gone too far, that American consumer confidence, critical for a soft landing, does not evaporate too suddenly. That's the key to a soft landing.  To avoid a hard
landing the Fed and the Treasury must sustain consumer confidence. If we get a sudden drop in consumer spending, we are in trouble. Our (Singapore's) projection of 5 - 7 percent growth for this year will be out of reach, because that's based on a 2 1/2 to 3 percent growth rate in the US.  If Americans stop buying, that's trouble.

We are part of this globalised economy.  I've seen the reaction time become faster and faster.  In the first oil crisis of 1973, it was about two or three months before inventories piled up in the US and the MNCs in Singapore laid off workers and stopped overtime.  As the computer became more efficient and control was on line, it's reduced to a matter of days. As inventories pile up, they scaled down operations in Singapore. Now it's almost instantaneous.

We've just got to accept this. We are part of this globalised economy. Without international trade and investments, causing the movement of goods, people and services, Singapore would have remained a fishing village. Every technological advance brings both an opportunity and a threat. We need to be alert and nimble to adjust to the changing environment. If we lose that capacity to adapt to a changing world, we will be side-lined.   We are price
takers, not price givers. We know what we have to do here. So when Americans tell me: you ought to govern in this way, I say thank you very much, I have listened to you very carefully, if I don't think we are ready for that, I have to do it my way.

 

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